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HURRICANE LILI INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER  40A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
2 PM EDT TUE OCT 01 2002

...EYE OF LILI MOVING ACROSS WESTERN CUBA...BECOMES CATEGORY 2 
HURRICANE...
 
A HURRICANE WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCES OF
MATANZAS...CIUDAD DE LA HABANA...LA HABANA...PINAR DEL RIO...AND THE
ISLE OF YOUTH.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE NORTH COAST OF THE
YUCATAN PENINSULA FROM COZUMEL TO PROGRESO.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE NORTHWESTERN
AND NORTHERN COASTS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO LATER TODAY.  INTERESTS
IN THESE AREA SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF LILI.
 
AT 2 PM EDT...1800Z...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE LILI WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 22.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE  84.4 WEST OR OVER WESTERN CUBA 
ABOUT 45 MILES...70 KM...NORTHEAST OF CABO SAN ANTONIO.  THIS
POSITION IS ALSO ABOUT 135 MILES...215 KM...SOUTHWEST OF HAVANA
CUBA.
 
LILI IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH...23 KM/HR... 
AND THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH SOME SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS.  THIS MOTION SHOULD BRING
THE CENTER OF LILI INTO THE SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE
NEXT FEW HOURS.
 
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT INDICATE 
THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR  100 MPH...160
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  THIS MAKES LILI A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE SCALE.  ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING
IS FORECAST AS THE CENTER MOVES INTO THE GULF OF MEXICO.
 
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO  25 MILES... 35 KM...
FROM THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP
TO 140 MILES...220 KM.
 
THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS  971 MB...28.67 INCHES.

A STORM SURGE OF 8 TO 10 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS...ALONG WITH 
BATTERING WAVES...CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG THE SOUTH COAST OF WESTERN 
CUBA TODAY.  A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 4 FT ABOVE NORMAL TIDE LEVELS
IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE NORTH COAST OF WESTERN CUBA IN AREAS OF
ONSHORE FLOW.
 
RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 8 TO 12 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED HIGHER 
AMOUNTS...ARE LIKELY NEAR THE PATH OF LILI.  THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE 
LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODING AND MUD SLIDES IN MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

REPEATING THE 2 PM EDT POSITION...22.3 N... 84.4 W.  MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 14 MPH.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS... 100 MPH.  MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE... 971 MB.
 
FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...PLEASE MONITOR
PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.
 
THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER
AT 5 PM EDT.
 
FORECASTER BEVEN
 
 
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