HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT FRI JUN 11 1999
 
THE CENTER OF THE BROAD LOW PRESSURE AREA SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA RE-
FORMED NEAR AN AREA OF CONVECTION LAST NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY RAPID
ORGANIZATION DURING THE DAY. LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS ARE T2.0
AND T1.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB RESPECTIVELY...SUPPORTING THE UPGRADE TO
TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE
BEING 055/11. THE CYCLONE IS SOUTH OF THE MAIN BAND OF WESTERLIES...
WITH THE AVN AND NOGAPS MODELS INDICATING A DEEP LAYER RIDGE
BUILDING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM DURING THE NEXT THREE DAYS. NHC
HURRICANE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE HIGHLY DIVERGENT...WITH THE LBAR AND
A98E MOVING THE CYCLONE TO THE EAST AND THE BAMS MOVING IT NW. THE
GFDL STALLS THE SYSTEM NEAR 29N58W...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO THE GFDL ALTHOUGH A BIT FARTHER EAST.
 
THE DEPRESSION EXHIBITS A GOOD CLOUD PATTERN IN VISIBLE IMAGERY...
WITH CONSIDERABLE BANDING SURROUNDING A RAGGED CDO. IT IS LIKELY THE
SYSTEM WILL REACH TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH IN 12 HOURS...IF IT HAS
NOT DONE SO ALREADY. THE LARGE SPREAD BETWEEN THE 72 HOUR POSITIONS
OF BAMS AND BAMD SUGGEST INCREASING SHEAR LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD...AND THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 24-25C SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES. THE FORECAST INTENSITY THUS LEVELS OFF AT 50 KT AFTER
36 HOURS.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     11/2100Z 27.6N  57.5W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/0600Z 28.4N  56.4W    40 KTS
24HR VT     12/1800Z 29.1N  56.1W    45 KTS
36HR VT     13/0600Z 29.3N  56.1W    50 KTS
48HR VT     13/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W    50 KTS
72HR VT     14/1800Z 29.5N  56.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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