HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ONE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT JUN 12 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 030/04.  THE AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A HIGH PERSISTING TO THE NORTH OF THE DEPRESSION AND MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE RESPONDS WITH LITTLE NORTHWARD MOTION FOR THE NEXT
THREE DAYS.  THE LBAR AND STATISTICAL DYNAMICAL MODELS SHOW A MOTION
TOWARD THE EAST WHILE THE REMAINDER OF THE MODELS SHOW NO EAST/WEST
MOTION OR A SLOW WESTWARD COMPONENT.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
SIMILAR TO AND SLIGHTLY LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND NEAR THE
GFLD MODEL WHICH SHOWS A VERY SLOW NORTH TO NORTHWEST DRIFT FOR
THREE DAYS.
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE CHANGE IN THE APPEARANCE OF THE SYSTEM ON
INFRARED IMAGERY...WHAT LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION EXISTS IS NOT WELL
ORGANIZED NOR IS THE BANDING WELL DEFINED.  THEREFORE THE OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE SLOWER IN DEVELOPMENT THAN THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE SHIPS INTENSITY
MODEL.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     12/0900Z 28.3N  57.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     12/1800Z 28.6N  57.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     13/0600Z 29.0N  57.0W    35 KTS
36HR VT     13/1800Z 29.4N  57.0W    40 KTS
48HR VT     14/0600Z 29.8N  57.0W    45 KTS
72HR VT     15/0600Z 30.5N  57.5W    45 KTS
 
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