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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM COR TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER 7 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT SUN JUN 13 1999 ...CORRECTION FOR INITIAL INTENSITY... THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH ARLENE REMAINS HEALTHY WITH AN EXPANDING CDO...TOPS TO -70C...AND GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SYSTEM WHILE IMPROVING ELSEWHERE. SATELLITE-BASED DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB REMAIN 55 KT AND 45 KT ...RESPECTIVELY. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE BUMPED UP TO 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 360/02 KT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AS THE SYNOPTIC REASONING REMAINS UNCHANGED. THE OFFICIAL NHC TRACK SHOWS A NORTH-NORTHWEST DRIFT THRU 24 HOURS WITH A MORE NORTHWEST MOTION THEREAFTER. THIS IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE AVN SOLUTION. WITH THE ABOVE-MENTIONED TRACK THE 00Z NCEP GLOBAL MODEL SUGGESTS THAT THE SHEAR WILL REMAIN RELATIVELY LIGHT OVER THE CYCLONE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY FORECAST BRINGS ARLENE TO A 65-KT HURRICANE BY 24 HOURS. GUINEY FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 13/0900Z 29.1N 57.4W 50 KTS 12HR VT 13/1800Z 29.3N 57.5W 60 KTS 24HR VT 14/0600Z 29.6N 57.6W 65 KTS 36HR VT 14/1800Z 30.0N 57.8W 65 KTS 48HR VT 15/0600Z 30.4N 58.3W 65 KTS 72HR VT 16/0600Z 31.0N 59.5W 65 KTS NNNN