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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT MON JUN 14 1999
 
THE LOW LEVEL CENTER IS EXPOSED WITH DEEP CONVECTION LOCATED WELL TO
THE EAST.  THERE MAY BE MULTIPLE LOW LEVEL CENTERS AS SAB AND TAFB
POSITION ESTIMATES ARE 50 NMI APART.  THIS HAS HAD THE EFFECT OF THE
MOTION APPEARING TO BE ERRATIC OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS.  GOING WITH
THE TAFB POSITION GIVES A MOTION OF 300/04 OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS.
THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL IS NOT YET AVAILABLE.  THE 12Z RUN SHOWS A
MAJOR TROUGH IN THE WESTERLIES MOVING TO THE U.S. EAST COAST IN 72
HOURS AND THE GUIDANCE MODELS RESPOND BY TURNING THE STORM NORTHWARD
WITH CONTINUED RATHER SLOW MOTION.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
AN UPDATE OF...AND SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  THIS BRINGS
THE CENTER TO WITHIN 60 NMI OF BERMUDA IN ABOUT 48 HOURS AND A
TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS A GOOD IDEA.
 
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND U.S. NAVY FNMOC SSM/I WIND SPEEDS
INDICATE MAX WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO 40 KNOTS.  THE SHIPS GUIDANCE
MODEL SHOWS SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IN THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND SO DOES
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     15/0300Z 29.9N  61.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     15/1200Z 30.2N  62.0W    40 KTS
24HR VT     16/0000Z 31.0N  62.6W    45 KTS
36HR VT     16/1200Z 31.7N  63.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     17/0000Z 32.5N  63.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     18/0000Z 35.0N  64.5W    45 KTS
 
 
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