HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED JUN 16 1999
 
ARLENE IS WINDING DOWN...WITH NO DEEP CONVECTION REMAINING. 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE NOW T2.5...35 KT.  OFFICIAL
INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE...AND AN AIR
FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL INVESTIGATE ARLENE THIS
EVENING.

THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS BECOMING OBSCURED AS NORTHEASTELY SHEAR IS
BLOWING CIRRUS OVER THE TOP OF THE CYCLONE.  THE INITIAL MOTION IS
NOW 345/7...AS ARLENE CURVES AROUND THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE.  THE GFDL LOSES THE STORM BY 48 H...AND THE REMAINING
GUIDANCE MODELS AGREE ON A GRADUAL ACCELERATION AS A TROUGH MOVES
OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  THE CURRENT FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE...NUDGED SLIGHTLY TOWARD THE SHALLOW BAM. 
 
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS MAY COME VERY CLOSE TO BERMUDA...AND A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT.  

IN ADDITION TO THE GFDL...THE GLOBAL MODELS DISSIPATE ARLENE BY 48 H
IN ADVANCE OF THE APPROCHING FRONTAL ZONE.
 
FRANKLIN/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     16/2100Z 31.9N  62.7W    40 KTS
12HR VT     17/0600Z 32.9N  63.0W    35 KTS
24HR VT     17/1800Z 34.5N  63.3W    30 KTS
36HR VT     18/0600Z 36.4N  63.2W    25 KTS
48HR VT     18/1800Z 38.8N  62.1W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     19/1800Z ...DISSIPATED 
 
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