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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  24
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999

ARLENE IS NOW A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA HAVE ALL DROPPED BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. BASED
ON THIS AND THE PREVIOUS RECONNAISSANCE DATA...ARLENE IS DOWNGRADED
TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. FURTHER WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS ARLENE
MOVES NORTH OVER COLDER SSTS...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS THE
SYSTEM DISSIPATING AT 48 HOURS.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS INCREASED THE PAST FEW HOURS AND IS NOW
345/8. THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR
THE FORECAST REASONING. ARLENE SHOULD TURN NORTH AND THEN NORTH-
NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE EAST AND
A DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND STATES...WITH A STEADY
ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE BAMM AND BAMS.

AFTER COORDINATION WITH THE GOVERNMENT OF BERMUDA...THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING HAS BEEN DISCONTINUED.
 
BEVEN/GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/0900Z 32.8N  63.2W    30 KTS
12HR VT     17/1800Z 34.0N  63.6W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/0600Z 36.2N  63.4W    30 KTS
36HR VT     18/1800Z 39.0N  62.2W    25 KTS
48HR VT     19/0600Z 42.0N  59.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     20/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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