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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARLENE DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU JUN 17 1999
 
ARLENE IS A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS WITH LIMITED CONVECTION WELL
SOUTH OF THE CENTER. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...
SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 2.O...30 KT.  FURTHER SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS ARLENE MOVES NORTH OVER COLDER SSTS.  THE TIMING OF
DISSIPATION IS THE HARDEST REMAINING QUESTION...WITH THE GFDL LOSING
ARLENE AT 10 H...AND THE AVN AND SHIPS BY 48 H. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE AND HAS THE SYSTEM DISSIPATING AT 36 HOURS.
 
THE FORWARD MOTION IS NOW 360/10.  THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE FROM
EITHER THE PREVIOUS FORECAST OR THE FORECAST REASONING. ARLENE
SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHEAST IN THE FLOW BETWEEN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE EAST AND A DEVELOPING FRONTAL LOW OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
STATES...WITH A STEADY ACCELERATION THROUGH 48 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE SHALLOW BAM.
 
FRANKLIN/JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     17/1500Z 34.1N  63.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     18/0000Z 35.7N  62.8W    30 KTS
24HR VT     18/1200Z 38.1N  62.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     19/0000Z 41.0N  60.2W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     19/1200Z ...DISSIPATED... 
 
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