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TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE DISCUSSION NUMBER   3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 19 1999
 
SATELLITE PICTURES THIS MORNING SUGGEST THAT TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THREE REMAINS ILL-DEFINED WITH A CHAOTIC CONVECTIVE PATTERN. THE
ALLEGED CENTER IDENTIFIED BY TAFB AND SAB METEOROLOGIST IS
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY NORTHEAST OF THE 03Z ADVISORY LOCATION. BASED 
ON THE TAFB AND SAB FIXES...THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 270/2 KT.
HOWEVER...AS MENTIONED IN THE LAST ADVISORY THE CENTER LOCATION 
REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN.  A U.S. AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS ENROUTE TO INVESTIGATE THE SYSTEM AND WILL AID IN
DETERMINING THE LOCATION OF THE CENTER.     
 
THE OOZ AVN MODEL CONTINUES THE TREND FROM EARLIER RUNS OF 
RETROGRADING THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE OVER THE SOUTH-CENTRAL
UNITED STATES...WITH A RESULTING WEAKNESS STRETCHING NORTHEASTWARD
FROM THE SOUTHWEST GULF TO A DEVELOPING TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES.  THE GFDI AND AVN TRACKS GO IN OPPOSITE DIRECTIONS...
THE AVN EAST AND THE GFDI WEST-SOUTHWEST THEN SOUTH-SOUTHEAST INTO
CENTRAL AMERICA. THE REMAINDER OF THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS MORE 
CENTERED ON A WEST-NORTHWESTERLY COURSE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS
A SLOW WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING THROUGH 72 HRS...REPRESENTING A SLIGHT
NORTHWARD ADJUSTMENT TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE DUE TO THE INITIAL
POSITION. 

THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE WEST-SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR DUE TO
THE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE EXTREME WESTERN GULF. THE GLOBAL
MODEL FORECAST SHOWS THE TROUGH MOVING OFF TO THE WEST AWAY FROM
THE DEPRESSION WHICH MAY ALLOW A MORE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR
STRENGTHENING BEYOND 24 HOURS.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/0900Z 19.9N  93.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     19/1800Z 20.1N  94.5W    30 KTS
24HR VT     20/0600Z 20.3N  95.1W    30 KTS
36HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  95.6W    35 KTS
48HR VT     21/0600Z 20.7N  96.1W    40 KTS
72HR VT     22/0600Z 21.0N  97.0W    50 KTS
 
 
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