HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT THU AUG 19 1999

THE LATEST DATA FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER PLANE
INDICATED A 1006 MB CENTRAL PRESSURE AND AN INNER WIND MAXIMUM
FORMING...WITH 39 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS 7 NM FROM THE CENTER.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA ARE ALL 35
KT. CONSEQUENTLY...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE IS UPGRADED TO TROPICAL
STORM BRET. EVEN THOUGH THE CYCLONE IS NOW A TROPICAL STORM...THE
CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION ON INFRARED IMAGERY IS STILL RATHER
POOR...AND IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE CONVECTION DISAPPEARED
FOR A TIME TONIGHT AS IT DID LAST NIGHT.
 
THE CYCLONE CONTINUES TO BE EMBEDDED IN LIGHT TO NON-EXISTENT
STEERING FLOW...AND THE BEST ESTIMATE OF THE MOTION BASED ON THE
RECON FIXES IS A NORTHWEST DRIFT. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
WEST-NORTHWEST TO NORTHWEST DRIFT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...AND IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE
NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS OVER BRET WITH GOOD OUTFLOW OVER THE NORTH
SEMICIRCLE AND FAIR OUTFLOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN QUADRANT. SHEAR IS
CURRENTLY LIGHT TO MODERATE...WITH LITTLE CHANGE FORECAST THROUGH 72
HOURS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE...CALLING FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING UNTIL LANDFALL BETWEEN 48
AND 72 HOURS.

THE IRREGULAR WIND RADII ARE BASED ON THE RECON DATA AND POSSIBLE
FUNNELING OF THE WIND ALONG THE MEXICAN COAST.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 19.9N  94.7W    35 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 20.1N  94.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 20.5N  95.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 20.9N  96.2W    50 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 21.5N  97.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 22.0N  98.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
 
 
NNNN