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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FOUND 85-90 KNOT FLIGHT
LEVEL WINDS IN THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT ON HIS LAST PASS WITH A
PRESSURE OF 980 MB.  AT NEARLY THE SAME TIME THE MIAMI SATELLITE
ESTIMATE WAS 77 KNOTS AND A PRESSURE ESTIMATE OF 979 MB. THUS...THE
WINDS ARE INCREASED TO 80 KNOTS.  THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE SHIPS MODEL GUIDANCE WHICH FORECASTS BRET TO BECOME A
MAJOR HURRICANE IN 24 HOURS.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 340/6...A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST. 
MODEL GUIDANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE
AVN CONTINUES TO SUGGEST THAT THERE WILL BE ENOUGH
MID-LEVEL RIDGING NORTH OF BRET TO TURN THE HURRICANE TO THE
NORTHWEST THEN WEST AND THEN SOUTHWEST AS DO THE BAM MODELS.  THE
UKMET CONTINUES TO MOVE THE HURRICANE INTO LOWER CENTRAL TEXAS WHILE
THE LBAR AND GFDL ARE NEAR THE US/MEXICAN BORDER.  THE OFFICIAL
SOLUTION IS CLOSE TO THE GFDL AND SLIGHTLY NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.
 
ALL INTERESTS ALONG THE TEXAS COAST SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF BRET DURING THE WEEKEND.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0900Z 22.7N  94.7W    80 KTS
12HR VT     21/1800Z 23.5N  95.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/0600Z 24.5N  96.0W   100 KTS
36HR VT     22/1800Z 25.1N  96.8W   105 KTS
48HR VT     23/0600Z 25.5N  97.5W   105 KTS
72HR VT     24/0600Z 26.0N  99.5W    45 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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