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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 21 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 340/07.  THE 06Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A SUBSTANTIAL 500 MB HIGH HOLDING STEADY IN THE VICINITY OF NEW
MEXICO FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS AND THIS SHOULD CAUSE A SLOWING OF THE
NORTHWARD MOTION AND/OR A TURN TOWARD THE WEST.  THE GFDL MODEL
SHOWS A TURN TOWARD THE WEST WITH THE CENTER AT THE COAST NEAR THE
TEXAS MEXICO BORDER IN 36 HOURS.  THE UKMET HAS A SIMILAR TRACK BUT
MUCH SLOWER AND THE NOGAPS KEEPS BRET ABOUT STATIONARY FOR 72 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY AND HAS THE CENTER AT THE COAST IN 36 HOURS.  THIS MAY BE A
LITTLE FAST BUT IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GFDL MODEL.
 
THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS 34 KNOT WINDS TO THE COAST IN ABOUT 24
HOURS...DEPENDING ON THE GALE RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT WHICH
IS ONLY ABOUT 60 NMI AT THIS TIME...BUT WHICH COULD EXPAND IN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS.  SO IT IS TIME TO PUT UP HURRICANE WARNINGS...FROM LA
PESCA MEXICO TO BAFFIN BAY TEXAS.

THE HIGHEST RECON WIND SPEED THIS MORNING IS 92 KNOTS JUST NORTHEAST
OF THE CENTER.  THE LATEST CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE IS 978 MB.  THE
OFFICIAL WIND SPEED AND FORECAST IS THE SAME AS THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...INCREASING THE WIND SPEED TO 105 KNOTS BEFORE LANDFALL. 
THE SHIPS INTENSITY MODEL TAKES THE WIND TO 110 KNOTS.
 
LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/1500Z 23.4N  94.9W    80 KTS
12HR VT     22/0000Z 24.4N  95.2W    90 KTS
24HR VT     22/1200Z 25.2N  96.1W   100 KTS
36HR VT     23/0000Z 25.8N  97.0W   105 KTS
48HR VT     23/1200Z 26.0N  98.0W    65 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     24/1200Z 26.0N  99.5W    40 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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