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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SUN AUG 22 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/09 AND WE MAY BE SEEING THE
BEGINNING OF A TURN TOWARD THE WEST THAT MANY OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS
HAVE BEEN INDICATING FOR SOME TIME.  THE LATEST GUIDANCE CONTINUES
TO INDICATE THAT THE ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST OF BRET WILL CAUSE
THE MOTION TO SLOW AND TURN LEFT.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
CONTINUES THE INITIAL MOTION FOR 12 HOURS WHICH BRINGS THE CENTER TO
THE COAST.  AFTER THIS THE TRACK FORECAST SLOWS TO LESS THAN 5 KNOTS
WITH A MOSTLY WESTWARD HEADING.  THIS IS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH
THE GFDL MODEL.

THE LATEST RECON CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE WAS 944 MB AND WIND
REPORTS CONTINUE TO SUPPORT A 120 KNOT HURRICANE.  NO IMPORTANT
CHANGES ARE EXPECTED BEFORE LANDFALL...BUT THERE WILL LIKELY BE
FLUCTUATIONS IN INTENSITY.

DATA BUOY 42020 REPORTED 35 KNOTS FOR THE FIRST TIME AT 12Z WHEN THE
CENTER WAS ABOUT 60 NMI TO THE SOUTHEAST...SO THIS IS THE BASIS FOR
THE 34-KNOT RADIUS IN THE NORTHWEST QUADRANT.

WHLIE WE ARE CALLING FOR 8 TO 12 INCHES OF RAIN...IF THE FORWARD
MOTION SLOW TO 5 KNOTS....THERE COULD BE AMOUNTS IN THE 20 INCH
RANGE.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 26.5N  96.5W   120 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 27.4N  97.3W   120 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 27.7N  98.4W    75 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     24/0000Z 27.7N  99.0W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     24/1200Z 27.7N  99.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     25/1200Z 27.5N 100.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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