HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON AUG 23 1999
 
SINCE LANDFALL...BRET HAS CONTINUED TO MOVE 280/5 ACROSS KENEDY
COUNTY INTO BROOKS COUNTY TEXAS. WSR-88D DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI
AND BROWNSVILLE SHOW THE EYE HAS FILLED...ALTHOUGH INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AT 0745Z STILL SHOWED A HINT OF AN EYE. DOPPLER
WINDS FROM THE RADARS HAVE BEEN STEADILY DECREASING...AND THIS DATA
IS THE BASIS FOR THE 75 KT INITIAL INTENSITY.
 
THERE IS LITTLE TO SAY ABOUT BRET TRACKWISE. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
WESTWARD UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE SOUTHWESTERN U.S. RIDGE...AND
THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE UNTIL DISSIPATION AT 48 HOURS.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THAT OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE...
CALLING FOR BRET TO SLOW TO 3 KT AFTER 24 HOURS.
 
DUE THE SLOW FORWARD MOTION...BRET IS LIKELY TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD
HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF SOUTH TEXAS AND NORTHEAST MEXICO...WITH
ADDITIONAL AMOUNTS OF 10-20 INCHES POSSIBLE. WSR-88D RAINFALL
ESTIMATES INDICATE AS MUCH AS 28 INCHES HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER
PARTS OF KENEDY COUNTY. FURTHER INFORMATION REGARDING THE RAINFALL
THREAT CAN BE FOUND IN LOCAL NWS FORECAST OFFICE PRODUCTS.
 
THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHEAST WIND RADII HAVE BEEN ADJUSTED BASED
ON SURFACE DATA FROM CORPUS CHRISTI AND BUOY 42020.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/0900Z 27.1N  98.2W    75 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     23/1800Z 27.1N  99.0W    50 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     24/0600Z 27.1N  99.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     24/1800Z 27.1N 100.4W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     25/0600Z 27.1N 101.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
72HR VT     26/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
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