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TROPICAL STORM BRET DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON AUG 23 1999
 
THERE ARE STILL A FEW 50 KNOT DOPPLER BLIPS FROM THE KCRP RADAR AND
25 KNOTS SUSTAINED WIND REPORTED FROM LAREDO...ALICE AND CORPUS
CHRISTI...SO BRET IS KEPT AT TROPICAL STORM STATUS FOR THIS
ADVISORY.  HOWEVER THE COASTAL TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS
DISCONTINUED.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 305/05.  THE TRACK MODELS SHOW A
MOSTLY SLOW WESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS AND THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST FOLLOWS THIS GUIDANCE...BUT CALLS FOR DISSIPATION BY 72
HOURS.  

THERE CONTINUES TO BE A THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN...IN PARTICULAR FROM AN
IMPRESSIVE BAND EXTENDING EAST THROUGH SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

SINCE COASTAL WARNINGS ARE DISCONTINUED...HPC WILL TAKE OVER AND
BEGIN ISSUING STORM SUMMARIES AT 23Z.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 27.8N  99.1W    35 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     24/0600Z 28.2N  99.8W    25 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     24/1800Z 28.4N 100.9W    25 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     25/0600Z 28.4N 101.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     25/1800Z 28.4N 102.0W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     26/1800Z DISSIPATED
 
 
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