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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST THU AUG 19 1999
 
THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR HAS BECOME HARD TO LOCATE DUE
TO A CIRRUS COVER OVER THE LOW LEVEL CENTER. THE EARLIER STRONG
CONVECTION HAS NOT PERSISTED...AND INSTEAD THERE IS BURSTING
CONVECTION CHARACTERISTIC OF A SHEARED SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE 35 KT...THIS PACKAGE WILL
KEEP THE SYSTEM A DEPRESSION.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE DIFFICULTY IN FINDING THE
CENTER...WITH THE BEST ESTIMATE OF 275/8. DESPITE THIS...THERE IS
LITTLE CHANGE IN THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO...BUT A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY...AND IS DOWN THE MIDDLE OF THE SUITE OF NHC
HURRICANE GUIDANCE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS ALSO SLIGHTLY CHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AS THE SHEAR AND DECREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION
SHOULD SLOW INTENSIFICATION EARLY IN THE FORECAST PERIOD. ALTHOUGH
THE TRACK FORECAST IS FURTHER SOUTH THAN 6 HOURS AGO...IT STILL
PASSES OVER SOME 25C-26C SSTS AFTER 48 HOURS. THUS...LITTLE
STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AT THAT TIME.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     19/2100Z 14.0N  22.8W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/0600Z 14.2N  24.2W    35 KTS
24HR VT     20/1800Z 14.4N  26.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     21/0600Z 14.7N  28.0W    55 KTS
48HR VT     21/1800Z 15.0N  30.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     22/1800Z 16.0N  35.0W    60 KTS
 
 
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