HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST THU AUG 19 1999
 
WHAT LITTLE DATA THAT ARE AVAILABLE ON THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION ARE
SENDING STRONGLY MIXED SIGNALS THIS EVENING.  SATELLITE AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY...THE LATTER FROM THE NAVAL RESEARCH LABORATORY IN
MONTEREY CALIFORNIA...SUGGEST THAT THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS
SUFFERING FROM STRONG NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR.  RECENT IMAGES SHOW NO
CONVECTION CLOSE TO THE PRESUMED CENTER.  ON THE OTHER HAND...SHIP
4QUM REPORTED SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 45 KT AT 18Z AND 37 KT AT 00Z.  THE
SECOND REPORT WAS ABOUT 150 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. 
ALTHOUGH THESE OBSERVATIONS ARE ACCEPTED AS CORRECT...I BELIEVE THEY
REFLECT THE LARGE SCALE FLOW OF THE ITCZ...PERHAPS ENHANCED BY THE
DEPRESSION.  VISIBLE IMAGERY IN THE MORNING WILL DETERMINE WHETHER
THIS ANALYSIS IS CORRECT...OR WHETHER THERE IS A WELL DEFINED
TROPICAL CYCLONE CIRCULATION...WITH THE REQUIRED ORGANIZED
CONVECTION.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS 275/8...AND THE TRACK FORECAST
IS MOSTLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.  HOWEVER...GIVEN THE
SHEAR...WHICH IS NOT EXPECTED TO LESSEN...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
BEEN HELD BACK COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     20/0300Z 14.0N  23.6W    30 KTS
12HR VT     20/1200Z 14.1N  24.9W    30 KTS
24HR VT     21/0000Z 14.4N  26.9W    30 KTS
36HR VT     21/1200Z 14.7N  29.1W    35 KTS
48HR VT     22/0000Z 15.0N  31.5W    40 KTS
72HR VT     23/0000Z 15.5N  36.5W    50 KTS
 
 
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