HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER   9
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST FRI AUG 20 1999
 
THE CLOUD PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH CINDY IS A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED
THAN YESTERDAY AND CONTINUES TO HAVE A LARGE ENVELOPE. DVORAK T-
NUMBERS ARE GRADUALLY INCREASING AND ARE ALL IN AGREEMENT THAT CINDY
HAS 40 TO 45 KNOT WINDS.  INITIAL INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 40
KNOTS AT THIS TIME.  THE TROPICAL CYCLONE IS STILL UNDER SOME
NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WHICH IS EXPECTED TO DECREASE.  THEREFORE...A
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND CINDY MAY REACH HURRICANE
STATUS BY 72 HOURS OR SO.
 
BEST ESTIMATE OF THE INITIAL MOTION IS 270/11.  CURRENTLY...THERE IS
A WELL ESTABLISHED MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE. THIS PATTERN WILL MAINTAIN THE WESTWARD TRACK DURING THE
NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THEREAFTER...LARGE SCALE MODELS WEAKEN THE
RIDGE. THIS WILL RESULT IN A TRACK MORE TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY THE
END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE
TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/0300Z 13.6N  28.3W    40 KTS
12HR VT     21/1200Z 13.6N  30.3W    45 KTS
24HR VT     22/0000Z 13.7N  32.5W    50 KTS
36HR VT     22/1200Z 14.0N  34.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     23/0000Z 14.5N  37.0W    60 KTS
72HR VT     24/0000Z 16.0N  42.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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