HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  12
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST SAT AUG 21 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
...WITH THE CENTER NOW UNDER A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS AND IS A COMPROMISE
BETWEEN THE 45 KNOT ESTIMATE FROM AFWA AND THE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB
AND SAB.  CINDY IS LIKELY NEAR HURRICANE STRENGTH.  UPPER-LEVEL
OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED SOMEWHAT DURING THE DAY...AND THE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE BETWEEN 26 AND 27C ALONG MOST OF THE TRACK...
BECOMING A LITTLE WARMER NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 
GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.

INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 280/10.  THE GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A
SOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID
LEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IS PRIMARILY A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL.  

MAYFIELD
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     21/2100Z 14.2N  31.4W    60 KTS
12HR VT     22/0600Z 14.4N  33.0W    65 KTS
24HR VT     22/1800Z 14.8N  35.2W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/0600Z 15.3N  37.6W    70 KTS
48HR VT     23/1800Z 16.1N  40.3W    75 KTS
72HR VT     24/1800Z 18.5N  45.5W    75 KTS
 
 
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