HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST SAT AUG 21 1999
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CINDY HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN
...WITH THE CENTER NOW UNDER A SMALL CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST.
T-NUMBERS ARE NOW 4.0/4.5 FROM SAB AND MIAMI RESPECTIVELY. THUS...
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 65 KNOTS WHICH MAKES CINDY THE
SECOND HURRICANE IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN THIS YEAR.  THE FORECAST
TRACK TAKES CINDY OVER 26 AND 27C SSTS...BECOMING A LITTLE WARMER
NEAR THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  GRADUAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS GUIDANCE.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE REMAINS AT 280/10.  VERY LITTLE HAS CHANGED
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  THE GLOBAL MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A
SOLID RIDGE TO THE NORTH AT LOW LEVELS WHICH WOULD ALLOW A WEAK
SYSTEM TO CONTINUE THE GENERAL WESTWARD MOTION.  HOWEVER...AT MID
LEVELS THERE IS A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE WHICH SUGGESTS A MORE
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY TRACK FOR A STRONGER CYCLONE.  THE CURRENT
FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS...AND IS PRIMARILY A
COMPROMISE BETWEEN THE NAVY NOGAPS...THE UKMET AND THE GFDL AND VERY
SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/0300Z 14.3N  32.5W    65 KTS
12HR VT     22/1200Z 14.5N  34.1W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/0000Z 15.0N  36.4W    70 KTS
36HR VT     23/1200Z 15.5N  38.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/0000Z 16.4N  41.4W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/0000Z 19.0N  47.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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