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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST SUN AUG 22 1999
 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT CINDY IS UNDER STRONG
EASTERLY SHEAR.  THE CENTER IS PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED
JUST TO THE EAST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION.  THE INITIAL POSITION HAS
BEEN ADJUSTED SOMEWHAT TO THE EAST.  CINDY MAY BE BARELY A
HURRICANE SINCE SOME OF THE SATELLITE ESTIMATES ARE BELOW 65 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...WE ARE KEEPING THE SAME INTENSITY AT THIS TIME UNTIL A
MORE VISIBLE PICTURES BECOME AVAILABLE.  ASSUMING THE SHEAR WILL
RELAX...AS CINDY MOVES AWAY FROM THE STRONG 200 MB EASTERLY
AFRICAN JET...SOME SLOW STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST.   SHIPS MODEL
CONTINUES TO INDICATE STRONG EASTERLY SHEAR AND KEEPS CINDY WITH 65
KNOTS. 
 
INITIAL MOTION IS 280/06.  IN GENERAL...TRACK GUIDANCE SUGGESTS A
SLOW WESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THEN SPLIT.  SOME MODELS
INDICATE A WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK WHILE THE BAM MODELS CONTINUE WITH A
GENERAL WEST OR EVEN WEST SOUTHWEST TRACK.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
IN THE MIDDLE OF THE MODEL ENSEMBLE AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ONE. 
 
AVILA

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     22/1500Z 14.4N  32.6W    65 KTS
12HR VT     23/0000Z 14.6N  33.6W    65 KTS
24HR VT     23/1200Z 14.7N  35.3W    70 KTS
36HR VT     24/0000Z 15.0N  38.0W    70 KTS
48HR VT     24/1200Z 15.5N  41.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     25/1200Z 16.5N  46.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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