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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  20
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST MON AUG 23 1999

...CORRECTION FOR 72 HOUR POSITION...
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 295/09.  THE 12 AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
A SLIGHT WEAKNESS AHEAD OF THE STORM IN THE 500 MB RIDGE.  THIS IS
CAUSING ALL OF THE TRACK FORECAST MODELS TO CONTINUE A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION THROUGH 72 HOURS WITH SOME ACCELERATION.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED A LITTLE TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE STORM CONTINUES TO BE SHEARED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED
TO THE SOUTHWEST OF THE LOW LEVEL CENTER WHICH IS NOT VERY WELL
DEFINED.  SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS NOT CHANGED FOR 36
HOURS.  AT 48 AND 72 HOURS...THE FORECAST IS FOR SLIGHT
STRENGTHENING AS THE SHIPS MODEL FORECASTS A WEAKENING OF THE
VERTICAL SHEAR.

THE WIND SPEED RADII ARE ADJUSTED TO SHOW THE STRONGEST WINDS IN THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT...BUT THE RADII ARE FORECAST TO BECOME SOMEWHAT
MORE SYMMETRIC AT 36 HOURS.

GUINEY/LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     23/2100Z 16.3N  37.4W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/0600Z 16.8N  38.9W    50 KTS
24HR VT     24/1800Z 17.6N  41.0W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  43.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N  46.6W    60 KTS
72HR VT     26/1800Z 22.0N  53.0W    60 KTS
 
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