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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  21
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST MON AUG 23 1999
 
CINDY REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE WITH THE CENTER ABOUT 45 NM
NORTHEAST FROM THE EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KTS FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE NCEP
GLOBAL MODEL FIELDS SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY RELAX WITHIN 24 HRS OR
SO...AS DOES THE OUTPUT FROM THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY
PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. THE INTENSITY FORECAST SHOWS CINDY
RETURNING TO HURRICANE STRENGTH BY 72 HRS ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG
AS SHIPS.
 
THE SATELLITE-BASED FIXES FROM TAFB AND SAB ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD
AGREEMENT...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KT.  THE
23/12Z AVN MODEL OUTPUT SHOWS A SLIGHT WEAKNESS IN THE MID-
TROPOSPHERIC RIDGE BY 48 HRS. MOST OF THE DYNAMIC-BASED TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED AROUND A WEST-NORTHWEST HEADING
THROUGH 72 HRS WITH SOME ACCELERATION...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST
TRACK REFLECTS THIS MOTION. THE NHC TRACK IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS IN CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH BAMD.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0300Z 16.7N  38.7W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1200Z 17.3N  40.4W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/0000Z 18.1N  42.7W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/1200Z 19.3N  45.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     26/0000Z 20.5N  48.5W    60 KTS
72HR VT     27/0000Z 23.5N  54.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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