HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 AM EST TUE AUG 24 1999
 
WHILE THE LATEST MULTI-CHANNEL SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT
CINDY REMAINS IN A SHEARED STATE...FIXES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND
AFGW SUGGEST THAT THE CENTER IS NOW ON THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE
CONVECTIVE MASS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE HELD AT 50 KTS.
THE 00Z AVIATION RUN SUGGEST THE SHEAR MAY RELAX WITHIN 24 HRS
OR SO...AS DOES THE OUTPUT FROM THE STATISTICAL HURRICANE INTENSITY
PREDICTION SCHEME...SHIPS. THE CYCLONE WILL ALSO BE APPROACHING
WARMER SST...28C BY 48 HRS. HOWEVER...DUE TO THE CONTINUED SHEARING
CONDITIONS AND OUR LIMITED SKILL IN INTENSITY FORECASTING THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINTAINS THE TREND OF GRADUAL STRENGTHENING 
FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/11 KTS. THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE NORTH OF CINDY WILL CONTINUE TO STEER THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH 72 HRS.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS
CLUSTERED ON THIS SCENARIO ALTHOUGH SOME OF THE GUIDANCE...NAMELY
THE BAM MODELS AND THE AVN...TAKE CINDY ON A MORE NORTHWESTERLY
HEADING BEYOND 36 HRS IN RESPONSE TO A WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK KEEPS CINDY ON A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWEST
HEADING THROUGH THE PERIOD AND IS VERY SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY. 
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/0900Z 17.2N  39.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     24/1800Z 17.8N  41.3W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/0600Z 18.6N  43.6W    50 KTS
36HR VT     25/1800Z 19.7N  46.3W    55 KTS
48HR VT     26/0600Z 21.0N  49.2W    60 KTS
72HR VT     27/0600Z 24.5N  56.0W    65 KTS
 
 
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