HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  23
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 AM EST TUE AUG 24 1999
 
SATELLITE FIXES ARE RATHER SCATTERED THIS MORNING...WITH A 90 MILE
SPREAD BETWEEN SAB...TAFB...AND AFWA.  I AM GOING WITH THE
AFWA...THE NORTHERNMOST.  THIS PUTS THE CENTER ON OR JUST OUTSIDE
THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION...AND THE INTENSITY IS HELD
AT 50 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.  GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
DIMINISH IN ABOUT 24 HOURS.  ALSO AT ABOUT THIS TIME...CINDY WILL BE
MOVING OVER WARMER WATER.  SHIPS GUIDANCE STRENGTHENS CINDY TO 84 KT
IN 72 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE MORE CONSERVATIVE AT
THIS TIME UNTIL THE SHEAR LESSENS. 

THE PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACCELERATION MAY BE DEVELOPING...AS THE
INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 285/13.  GIVEN THE SPREAD OF THIS MORNINGS
FIXES...THOUGH...I AM NOT CERTAIN OF THIS.  THE MID-TROPOSPHERIC
RIDGE NORTH OF CINDY IS STEERING THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL
WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK.  THE TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED
ON A WEST-NORTHWEST TO GRADUALLY MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AROUND THE
SUBTROPCICAL RIDGE AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.  

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     24/1500Z 17.6N  41.8W    50 KTS
12HR VT     25/0000Z 18.4N  43.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     25/1200Z 19.5N  46.8W    55 KTS
36HR VT     26/0000Z 21.0N  50.0W    60 KTS
48HR VT     26/1200Z 23.0N  53.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     27/1200Z 26.0N  58.0W    75 KTS
 
 
NNNN