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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  29
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED AUG 25 1999
 
THE MOTION OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS HAS BEEN TOWARD 330 DEGREES.  THE
OFFICIAL INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 315/15...WHICH IS A MORE
CONSERVATIVE 10 DEGREE SHIFT TO THE NORTH FROM THE PREVIOUS HEADING
OF 305 DEGREES.  THE MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL CLOSELY CLUSTERED
TOGETHER SHOWING A CONTINUED NORTHWESTWARD MOTION FOR 72 HOURS.  THE
MOTION APPEARS TO BE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE.

DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 65 KNOTS FROM TAFB AND SAB AND CINDY
IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE.  WARM SSTS AND LOW VERTICAL SHEAR ALLOW
FOR FURTHER STRENGTHENING AND THE FORECAST TO 90 KNOT IN 48 HOURS
FOLLOWS THE SHIPS MODEL.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0300Z 22.2N  48.7W    65 KTS
12HR VT     26/1200Z 23.6N  50.6W    75 KTS
24HR VT     27/0000Z 25.0N  53.0W    80 KTS
36HR VT     27/1200Z 26.5N  55.5W    85 KTS
48HR VT     28/0000Z 28.2N  57.6W    90 KTS
72HR VT     29/0000Z 31.5N  61.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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