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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  39
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB AND SAB...ARE NOW 127 AND
115 KT.  OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AVERAGED OVER THE PAST THREE
HOURS GIVE 120 KT...AND THE INTENSITY IS SET TO THIS VALUE...MAKING
CINDY AN UNAMBIGUOUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE.  ONLY A LIMITED AMOUNT
OF ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND INDEED THE OBJECTIVE
DVORAK ESTIMATES APPEAR TO HAVE ALREADY PEAKED.

THERE IS LITTLE CHANGE IN EITHER THE TRACK FORECAST PHILOSOPHY OR
THE TRACK FORECAST FROM THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  ALL GUIDANCE
INDICATES THAT CINDY WILL RECURVE INTO THE WESTERLIES AT ABOUT 24
HOURS AND ACCELERATE THEREAFTER.  THE MAJOR UNKNOWN IS THE TIMING OF
THE EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION...A TRANSITION THAT WE KNOW LITTLE
ABOUT.

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/1500Z 30.4N  58.2W   120 KTS
12HR VT     29/0000Z 31.4N  58.8W   125 KTS
24HR VT     29/1200Z 33.4N  58.7W   120 KTS
36HR VT     30/0000Z 35.4N  56.9W   110 KTS
48HR VT     30/1200Z 38.0N  54.0W   100 KTS
72HR VT     31/1200Z 44.0N  44.0W    80 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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