HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  42
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999
 
THE HEADING CONTINUES TO SHIFT TOWARD THE RIGHT...AND THE INITIAL
HEADING HAS AN EAST COMPONENT...010/10.  AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO
ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST THE WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD BEGIN TO
DECREASE AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE LESS RAGGED LOOKING.  OBJECTIVELY
DETERMINED T-NUMBERS ARE DECREASING AND NOW SHOW THE WIND SPEED AT
110 KT. 
 
LARGE SCALE MODELS SHOW A DEEPER AND BROADER TROUGH DROPPING
SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN UNITED STATES AND NORTHWESTERN
ATLANTIC OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
ACCELERATE CINDY TOWARD THE NORTHEAST.  THE TRACK GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GENERAL AGREEMENT ON THE DIRECTION OF RECURVATURE BUT NOW IS
DISAGREEING ON THE SPEED.  GFDL AND UKMET DO NOT ACCELERATE THE
SYSTEM AS FAST COMPARED TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.  AVN AND BAM MODELS
SHOW GREATER ACCELERATIONS.  OFFICIAL FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND STILL ALLOWS FOR THE FASTER ACCELERATION.  AS
NOTED IN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING INTO COOLER
WATERS WHERE A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL STATUS SHOULD OCCUR BY 72
HOURS.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     29/0900Z 33.0N  58.2W   110 KTS
12HR VT     29/1800Z 34.3N  57.1W   100 KTS
24HR VT     30/0600Z 36.6N  55.0W    90 KTS
36HR VT     30/1800Z 39.6N  51.7W    80 KTS
48HR VT     31/0600Z 42.1N  47.0W    70 KTS
72HR VT     01/0600Z 47.0N  36.5W    60 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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