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HURRICANE CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SUN AUG 29 1999
 
THE WEAKENING TREND HAS MADE IT DIFFICULT TO ESTIMATE THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION ON IR IMAGES...BUT THE SATELLITE ANALYSES DO SUGGEST A
MORE EASTWARD TRACK THAN 6 HOURS AGO.  INITIAL MOTION IS NOW
ESTIMATED TO BE ENE...065/11.  BOTH TAFB AND SAB HAVE T/CI OF
4.5/5.0...SO 90 KT WILL AGAIN BE USED AS THE INITIAL MAXIMUM WIND
SPEED.
 
NUMERICAL GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW A GENERAL NE MOTION THROUGH 72
HOURS WITH THE WESTERLIES GRADUALLY TAKING CINDY INTO COLDER WATER. 
FURTHER WEAKENING IS FORECAST WITH A TRANSITION TO EXTRATROPICAL
STATUS AROUND 48 HOURS.
 
A SHIP 220 NM SE OF THE CENTER REPORTED WINDS NEAR 25 KT AT 00Z. 
THIS IS THE BASIS FOR DECREASING THE WIND RADII.
 
RAPPAPORT
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0300Z 34.6N  55.8W    90 KTS
12HR VT     30/1200Z 35.4N  53.9W    75 KTS
24HR VT     31/0000Z 37.1N  51.1W    65 KTS
36HR VT     31/1200Z 39.2N  47.9W    55 KTS
48HR VT     01/0000Z 41.9N  43.5W    50 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     02/0000Z 48.5N  32.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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