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TROPICAL STORM CINDY DISCUSSION NUMBER  50
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999
 
CINDY CONTINUES EXPERIENCING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS NOW 60 KTS...BASED UPON TAFB...SAB AND AFGW
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES.  THUS...CINDY IS DOWNGRADED TO A
TROPICAL STORM. THE FORECAST CALLS FOR GRADUAL WEAKENING...
AND ALL GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE THAT CINDY WILL MERGE...WITHIN THE
NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH THE SHORT WAVE THAT IS INTERACTING WITH IT NOW.
 
CINDY CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST...IN RESPONSE TO
THE SHORT WAVE...AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 050/20.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS SHIFTED TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK AFTER 24 HOURS REFLECTS THE MERGED SYSTEM.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 38.8N  49.9W    60 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 41.5N  47.0W    50 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 44.0N  42.0W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
36HR VT     01/1800Z 44.7N  38.6W    45 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
48HR VT     02/0600Z 44.7N  35.3W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
72HR VT     03/0600Z 42.5N  28.5W    40 KTS...EXTRATROPICAL
 
 
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