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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  26
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 025/10.  THE AVIATION MODEL...GFDL
...UKMET...AND NOGAPS...ALL SHOW THE HURRICANE NOT GETTING PICKED UP
BY THE SHORT WAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER THE NORTHEAST U.S. 
SO THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST MOVES THE HURRICANE NORTHEAST TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD FOR 36 HOURS WITH NO MOVEMENT FROM 36 THROUGH 72
HOURS.  THE GFDL MODEL TURNS THE HURRICANE BACK TOWARD THE WEST AND
THREATENS THE CHESAPEAKE BAY AREA WHILE THE OTHER MODELS TEND STAY A
FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.  IT IS OF COURSE
NOT POSSIBLE TO FIGURE OUT EXACTLY WHICH WAY THE HURRICANE WILL MOVE
AFTER IT GETS LEFT BEHIND BY THE TROUGH.  THE FORECAST TRACK BRINGS
THE CENTER WITHIN ABOUT 35 NMI OF THE OUTER BANKS OF N CAROLINA IN
12 HOURS SO THE HURRICANE WARNING IS EXTENDED A LITTLE NORTHWARD TO
THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER.  

THE LATEST RECON PRESSURE IS 963 MB.  RECON DATA SHOWS THAT THE MAX
WIND SPEED IS 85 KNOTS INSTEAD OF 90.  THERE IS STILL A CHANCE OF
SOME INTENSIFICATION AS RADAR SHOWS THAT THE EYE APPEARS TO BE
GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/0900Z 33.3N  77.3W    85 KTS
12HR VT     30/1800Z 34.4N  76.0W    90 KTS
24HR VT     31/0600Z 35.0N  74.0W    95 KTS
36HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.5W    95 KTS
48HR VT     01/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W    95 KTS
72HR VT     02/0600Z 35.5N  72.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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