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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  27
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT MON AUG 30 1999
 
THE MOTION THIS MORNING HAS BEEN FASTER TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST...A
POSITIVE SIGN...BUT ALL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THIS A SHORT TERM
ACCELERATION.  A HOPEFULLY REPRESENTATIVE INITIAL MOTION IS 060/13. 
ALTHOUGH THE GFDL INDICATES A SHARP TURN NORTHWESTWARD BACK TOWARDS
THE COAST...THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE MOVES DENNIS SLOWLY AWAY FROM
THE U.S.  THE AVN BEYOND 48 H SHOWS DENNIS EMBEDDED WITHIN A
DOUGHNUT-SHAPED RIDGE...AS THE LONG-WAVE PATTERN UNDERGOES A MAJOR
SHIFT.  IF THIS VERIFIES...DENNIS WILL MOVE LITTLE...AND THIS IS THE
OPTION FAVORED BY THE OFFICIAL FORECAST.

THE MOST RECENT PRESSURE FROM THE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS 965
MB...UP FROM THE PREVIOUS FIX.  THE FIRST SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE
IN A COUPLE OF DAYS SUGGESTS THAT DENNIS HAS PEAKED AND WILL SLOWLY
WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS IN A HIGH SHEAR ENVIRONMENT.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST REFLECTS THIS.  THE INNER CORE OF DENNIS HAS NEVER
LOOKED VERY WELL ORGANIZED...BUT IF THIS STRUCTURE IMPROVES
INTENSIFICATION COULD OCCUR.  IT IS WORTH NOTING THAT WE HAVE ALMOST
NO SKILL AT FORECASTING THESE KINDS OF CHANGES.
 
FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     30/1500Z 33.8N  75.6W    85 KTS
12HR VT     31/0000Z 34.6N  74.6W    85 KTS
24HR VT     31/1200Z 35.1N  73.5W    80 KTS
36HR VT     01/0000Z 35.5N  73.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     01/1200Z 35.5N  73.0W    75 KTS
72HR VT     02/1200Z 35.5N  73.0W    75 KTS
 
 
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