HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999
 
AFTER ACCERATING TO 17 KNOTS FORWARD MOTION ON MONDAY...DENNIS HAS
SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY.  THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS NOW
065/06.  ALTHOUGH I HAVE NOT SEEN THE 00Z AVIATION RUN...THE UKMET
AND NOGAPS 00Z RUNS BOTH SHOW LITTLE MOTION FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS
WHILE CUT OFF FROM ANY SIGNIFICANT STEERING CURRENTS.  BOTH MODELS
FORECAST A TIGHT CYCLONIC LOOP AND END UP A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE
STARTING POSITION.  THE 18Z GFDL MODEL SHOWED A WESTWARD MOTION
MOVING DENNIS BACK ACROSS THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST AFTER 48 HOURS. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A BLEND OF THE ABOVE...ENDING UP
ABOUT 30 NMI WEST OF THE INITIAL POSITION IN 72 HOURS.  WITH THIS
FORECAST...THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE COASTAL WARNINGS EXCEPT THAT 
THE GALE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN EXTENDED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH INTO NEW
JERSEY.

RECON DATA INDICATES THE WINDS HAVE WEAKENED TO 75 KNOTS AS THE
CENTRAL SURFACE PRESSURE HAS RISEN TO 977 MB.  SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS ONLY A LITTLE DEEP CONVECTION AND THIS HAS BEEN SHEARED WELL
TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.  ALSO THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION IS OVER RATHER COLD SSTS.  SO THE FORECAST IS FOR SLOW
WEAKENING FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS...BUT NOT AS MUCH WEAKENING AS THE
SHIPS MODEL.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/0900Z 35.3N  72.6W    75 KTS
12HR VT     31/1800Z 35.5N  72.0W    75 KTS
24HR VT     01/0600Z 36.0N  72.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     01/1800Z 36.0N  72.5W    70 KTS
48HR VT     02/0600Z 35.8N  73.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  73.5W    60 KTS
  
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