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HURRICANE DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  31
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT TUE AUG 31 1999
 
THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE MOTION OVER THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. BECAUSE OF
A MAJOR CHANGE IN THE LONGWAVE PATTERN...THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES
ARE SHIFTING WELL TO THE NORTH.  AT MID-LEVELS...DENNIS IS BECOMING
SANDWICHED BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE AREAS.  THEREFORE...THE MOTION IS
LIKELY TO BE SLOW AND ERRATIC.  THIS IS SHOWN IN THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST.  HOWEVER IF THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTH BECOMES MORE
DOMINANT...THAN A MORE WESTWARD TRACK COULD DEVELOP.  NO CHANGES
HAVE BEEN MADE TO THE TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS SINCE DENNIS IS NO
LONGER MOVING AWAY FROM THE COAST.
 
COOL DRY AIR HAS INVADED THE CIRCULATION OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE SO
THAT THERE IS NOW LITTLE...IF ANY DEEP CONVECTION ASSOCIATED WITH
THE SYSTEM.  DENNIS DOES NOT LOOK VERY TROPICAL AT THIS TIME.
OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A VERY LARGE RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS AND ONLY
A SLIGHT TEMPERATURE RISE AT THE CENTER.  SINCE THE SYSTEM IS NOT
FAR FROM WARM WATERS AND THE AIR MASS COULD RECOVER...THERE IS A
SLIGHT CHANCE THAT DENNIS COULD MAKE A COMEBACK.  OTHERWISE THE
SYSTEM MAY BE DECLARED EXTRATROPICAL.
 
PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     31/1500Z 35.3N  72.9W    65 KTS
12HR VT     01/0000Z 35.5N  73.0W    60 KTS
24HR VT     01/1200Z 35.5N  73.5W    60 KTS
36HR VT     02/0000Z 35.5N  73.5W    55 KTS
48HR VT     02/1200Z 35.0N  73.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     03/1200Z 35.0N  73.5W    50 KTS
  
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