HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  36
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 01 1999

THERE HAVE BEEN SOME CHANGES SINCE EARLIER TODAY.  LAST RECON
INDICATED A BAND OF CONVECTION FEEDING INTO THE CENTER...AND WSR-
88D SHOWS THIS AS WELL.  SATELLITE IMAGERY ALSO SHOWS MORE
PERSISTENT CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER.  SO THE TREND TOWARD
EXTRATROPICAL STATUS HAS APPARENTLY CEASED.  THE CYCLONE MAY BE
UNDERGOING SOME SORT OF SUBTROPICAL EVOLUTION...WHEREIN THE CENTRAL
CORE IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A LARGER UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION...IN AN AREA WHERE THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS LESSENED.  IN
FACT...THE SATELLITE IMAGES SUGGEST THAT THE SHEAR OVER THE CENTER
MAY BE WEAKENING.  CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS 50 KNOTS AND NO
CHANGE IS PREDICTED THROUGH THE PERIOD...DUE TO OUR LACK OF
UNDERSTANDING THE FUTURE EVOLUTION OF DENNIS.    

A SLOW WESTWARD MOTION HAS BEEN OBSERVED RECENTLY...AROUND 270/3. 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS NOT MUCH DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS
ONE.   ALTHOUGH THE STEERING CURRENTS ARE NOT VERY WELL
DEFINED...THE PRIMARY PLAYERS APPEAR TO BE A MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
THE EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONE
THAT ENVELOPS DENNIS.   THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE A
GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST...AND THEN
SOUTHWEST.  THIS IS ABOUT IN THE MIDDLE OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACKS.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     01/2100Z 35.5N  74.0W    50 KTS
12HR VT     02/0600Z 35.4N  74.5W    50 KTS
24HR VT     02/1800Z 35.2N  75.2W    50 KTS
36HR VT     03/0600Z 34.8N  75.8W    50 KTS
48HR VT     03/1800Z 34.5N  76.5W    50 KTS
72HR VT     04/1800Z 33.5N  78.0W    50 KTS
 
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