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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  38
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU SEP 02 1999
 
THERE IS NOTHING NEW TO SAY ABOUT DENNIS.  LETS FACE IT...DENNIS
CONTINUES TO LOOK LIKE AN EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE WITH A INTERMITTENT
PATCHES OF CONVECTION.  A SIMPLE INSPECTION OF THE FULL DISK GOES-8
SHOWS THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN OF DENNIS IS SIMILAR TO THE
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE LOCATED ABOUT 1600 MILES TO THE NORTHEAST. 
BOTH SHIPS AND GFDL STRENGTHEN DENNIS AND IN GENERAL...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST WOULD GO ALONG WITH THESE MODELS.  IN THIS CASE
...REGENERATION IS NOT REALISTIC SINCE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE
FORECAST TO REMAIN UNFAVORABLE. 

THE WEST TO WEST-SOUTHWEST TRACK FORECAST BY MODELS AS WELL AS THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST HAS NOT MATERIALIZED YET.  DENNIS REMAINS NEARLY
STATIONARY

I HAVE THE SAME DILEMMA THAT I HAD YESTERDAY.  I DO NOT WANT TO MAKE
A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE FORECAST OR THE STATUS WITHOUT VISIBLE
IMAGES OR RECON.   THIS FORECAST IS BASICALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS ONE...KEEPING DENNIS NEARLY STATIONARY FOR 12 HOURS OR SO
AND THEN...MOVING IT TOWARD THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.  THE STATUS OF THE
TROPICAL STORM WARNING WILL PROBABLY BE RECONSIDERED LATER DAY.     

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     02/0900Z 35.3N  73.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     02/1800Z 35.3N  73.6W    45 KTS
24HR VT     03/0600Z 35.0N  75.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     03/1800Z 34.5N  75.5W    45 KTS
48HR VT     04/0600Z 34.0N  76.5W    45 KTS
72HR VT     05/0600Z 33.5N  78.0W    45 KTS
 
 
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