HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  45
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI SEP 03 1999
 
THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 290/02.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
THE RIDGE NORTH OF THE STORM WEAKENING AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES
TOR THE GREAT LAKES IN 72 HOURS.  THIS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE THE STORM
NORTHWESTWARD WITH SOME INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IN 24 TO 48 HOURS.

THE 18Z GFDL AND 12Z UKMET AND NOGAPS MODELS ALL SHOW THE TRACK
ACROSS THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA IN 24 TO 36 HOURS AND THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST DOES LIKEWISE.  THE HPC FORECAST IS A LITTLE
SLOWER AND FURTHER TO THE RIGHT.  SO THE WATCHES AND WARNINGS SEEM
ABOUT RIGHT FOR NOW.

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE MOREHEAD CITY RADAR SHOW A SMALL AREA OF
DEEP CONVECTION ROTATING AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE CENTER.  AS THE
CENTER MOVES ACROSS THE GULF STREAM...THERE COULD BE SOME
INTENSIFICATION AS INDICATED BY THE SHIPS AND GFDL MODELS.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INCREASES THE WIND TO 60 KNOTS IN 24 HOURS
FOLLOWED BY WEAKENING WHEN (AND IF) THE STORM MOVES INLAND.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     04/0300Z 33.2N  74.3W    50 KTS
12HR VT     04/1200Z 33.4N  74.8W    55 KTS
24HR VT     05/0000Z 34.7N  76.0W    60 KTS
36HR VT     05/1200Z 36.3N  77.5W    35 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     06/0000Z 37.5N  78.5W    30 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     07/0000Z 39.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
 
 
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