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TROPICAL STORM DENNIS DISCUSSION NUMBER  49
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT SAT SEP 04 1999
 
THE CENTER OF DENNIS IS INLAND OVER EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA.  THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 310/08.  THE 18Z AVIATION MODEL SHOWS
RATHER SLOW MOTION AND LOSES THE STORM BY 48 HOURS.  THE 18Z GFDL
MODEL SHOWS A SLOW NORTHWARD MOTION INTO WESTERN NEW YORK IN 72
HOURS WHILE THE 12Z NOGAPS AND UKMET ACCELERATE THE STORM RAPIDLY TO
NORTH OF 55N IN 72 HOURS.  LBAR IS ALSO SLOW.
 
THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS A COMPROMISE...FASTER THAN THE GFDL
AND CLOSE TO HPC BUT SLOWER THAN THE FASTEST MODELS AND BRINGS THE
REMNANT LOW TO NEAR MONTREAL IN 72 HOURS.

MOREHEAD CITY RADAR AND SURFACE REPORTS INDICATE THAT THE SURFACE
WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN 45 KNOTS WHICH WILL BE THE ADVISORY VALUE. 
TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS ARE STILL UP BUT WILL PROBABLY BE LOWERED IN
A FEW HOURS.

A HAM RADIO REPORT GIVES 6 FEET ABOVE NORMAL WATER AT THE NEUSE
RIVER NEAR NEW BERN.  THE GFDL MODEL SHOWS A MAX OF 11 INCHES OF
RAINFALL NEAR THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER...BUT IT IS ONE OF
THE SLOWER MODELS.

LAWRENCE
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/0300Z 35.2N  77.2W    45 KTS...INLAND
12HR VT     05/1200Z 36.1N  78.2W    35 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     06/0000Z 37.6N  78.7W    30 KTS...INLAND
36HR VT     06/1200Z 39.2N  78.7W    25 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/0000Z 41.0N  78.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/0000Z 46.0N  75.0W    20 KTS...INLAND
  
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