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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
10 PM EST TUE AUG 24 1999
 
THE WELL-DEFINED SURFACE CIRCULATION OF EMILY IS NOW EXPOSED WITH 
LIMITED DEEP CONVECTION MAINLY SOUTH OF THE CENTER. THE CENTER HAS
BEEN MOVING NORTHWARD OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS OR SO BASED ON SATELLITE
ESTIMATES. THIS MAY BE PARTIALLY DUE TO TROPICAL STORM CINDY WHICH
IS DISRUPTING THE EASTERLY TRADEWIND FLOW AROUND EMILY.   THE
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 355/06 KTS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST BENDS
EMILY BACK TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITHIN 12 HOURS OR SO HOWEVER...
THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY IN THIS FORECAST THERE IS A
POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY MAY BECOME ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF CINDY DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. 

THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF EMILY HAS BEEN REDUCED TO 40 KTS FOR THIS
ADVISORY AS THE CENTER IS EXPOSED AND WELL-REMOVED FROM ANY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO EXPERIENCING MODEST EASTERLY SHEAR.
SHEAR...10 TO 15 KT.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS BEEN TRIMMED BACK
FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BUT STILL CALLS FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION.
THIS IS ALL CONTINGENT ON THE FUTURE TRACK OF THE SYSTEM AND ITS
ABILITY TO MAINTAIN ITS IDENTITY.   

ALL INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES...PRIMARILY THE NORTHERN
PORTION...SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EMILY.
 
GUINEY
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     25/0300Z 12.6N  54.0W    40 KTS
12HR VT     25/1200Z 13.3N  54.5W    40 KTS
24HR VT     26/0000Z 14.0N  55.5W    45 KTS
36HR VT     26/1200Z 14.8N  56.8W    55 KTS
48HR VT     27/0000Z 15.5N  58.0W    65 KTS
72HR VT     28/0000Z 17.0N  60.5W    65 KTS
 
 
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