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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER   7
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT THU AUG 26 1999

THE STORM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED WITH SPORADIC CONVECTION AND NO
BANDING FEATURES.  EASTERLY SHEARING CONTINUES TO PREVENT
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.  MOREOVER...THE LOW-LEVEL INFLOW IS LIKELY
BEING DISRUPTED BY THE PRESENCE OF THE HURRICANE CINDY TO THE
NORTH-NORTHEAST.  IT IS ASSUMED THAT THE SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN
THESE TWO SYSTEMS WILL BE INCREASING WITH TIME...SO THE HOSTILE
INFLUENCE OF CINDY SHOULD LESSEN.  THE SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST
MODEL INDICATES DECREASING SHEAR OVER EMILY...AND SHOWS THE STORM
STRENGTHENING TO A HURRICANE IN 36 TO 48 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS NOT AS AGGRESSIVE BECAUSE OTHER SOURCES OF VERTICAL
SHEARING... SUCH AS AN UPPER LOW NOW JUST NORTH OF 20N OR THE UPPER
OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE DENNIS...COULD HAVE A NEGATIVE IMPACT ON
EMILY.

THE SYNOPTIC POSITION AND MOTION ARE VERIFIED BY OBSERVATIONS FROM A
FRENCH BUOY...I.D. 41101 NEAR 14.6N56.2W...WHICH SHOWED A 1009.2 MB
PRESSURE AND EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS OF 27 KNOTS.  EMILY IS ESTIMATED
TO BE MOVING 315/06.  SOME OF THE OBJECTIVE TRACK GUIDANCE SHOWS A
MORE NORTHWARD MOTION...PRESUMABLE DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF CINDY. 
THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
TRACK...BUT IT IS ASSUMED THAT CINDY WILL MOVE FAR ENOUGH AWAY SO
THAT THE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK WILL CONTINUE.

SINCE THE FORECAST KEEPS THE STORM EAST OF THE LESSER ANTILLES AND
EMILY IS SO SMALL IN SIZE...WATCHES AND/OR WARNINGS ARE NOT DEEMED
NECESSARY AT THIS TIME.

PASCH
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     26/0900Z 14.4N  56.4W    40 KTS
12HR VT     26/1800Z 15.1N  56.9W    40 KTS
24HR VT     27/0600Z 16.4N  58.0W    45 KTS
36HR VT     27/1800Z 18.0N  59.5W    50 KTS
48HR VT     28/0600Z 19.5N  61.0W    55 KTS
72HR VT     29/0600Z 23.0N  64.5W    65 KTS
 
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