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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  11
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER MADE TWO CENTER FIXES ON EMILY
THAT WERE 50 NM APART. THE SECOND FIX HAD THE BETTER DEFINED CENTER
WITH A 1009 MB PRESSURE AND 44 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST.
THIS SUGGESTS THAT EMILY IS CLOSE TO REGAINING TROPICAL STORM
INTENSITY. SINCE THE FIXES WERE SO FAR APART...AND THE ASSOCIATED
DEEP CONVECTION IS VERY POORLY ORGANIZED...THE SYSTEM REMAINS A
DEPRESSION ON THIS PACKAGE.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. THE SECOND AIRCRAFT FIX
WOULD SUGGEST A NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION. THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION...360/10...ARE BASED ON A BLEND OF THE TWO FIXES. THE
AVIATION-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS EMILY TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE
NOGAPS AND UKMET TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO CINDY.
THE FORECAST TRACK STILL CALLS FOR A NORTHWESTWARD TURN...BUT IT IS
SHIFTED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK. IF VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGERY VERIFIES THE NORTH-NORTHEAST MOTION...BOTH THE
POSITION AND THE TRACK WILL NEED TO BE RE-LOCATED.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS DEVELOPING WEST OF EMILY...WITH RIDGING
OVER THE CENTER AT THIS TIME. THIS SUGGESTS A MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT THAN 24 HOURS AGO...AND THE SHIPS MODEL CONTINUES TO RE-
INTENSIFY THE SYSTEM. GIVEN THE RAGGED APPEARANCE...AND THE
POSSIBILITY THAT EMILY COULD DISSIPATE COMPLETELY DUE TO INTERACTION
WITH CINDY...THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
PACKAGE.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     27/0900Z 18.8N  57.0W    30 KTS
12HR VT     27/1800Z 20.4N  57.0W    30 KTS
24HR VT     28/0600Z 22.4N  57.5W    30 KTS
36HR VT     28/1800Z 24.3N  58.4W    30 KTS
48HR VT     29/0600Z 26.0N  60.0W    25 KTS
72HR VT     30/0600Z 29.0N  63.0W    25 KTS
 
 
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