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ZCZC MIATCDAT1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER 12 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 11 AM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999 THERE HAS BEEN NO AIRCRAFT RECONNAISSANCE IN EMILY SINCE ABOUT 9Z THIS MORNING. AT THAT TIME EMILY WAS CLOSE TO TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH. CONVECTION SOUTH OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER WAS ACTIVE THIS MORNING BUT IS ALREADY ON THE DECLINE. I WILL HOLD EMILY AS A DEPRESSION IN ANTICIPATION OF ANOTHER FIX/INVEST AT 18Z THIS AFTERNOON...NOTING THAT THE SHIPS MODEL STRENGTHENS EMILY...AS IT HAS CONSISTENTLY FOR THREE DAYS. THE CENTER IS NOT WELL DEFINED AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN. THE BEST GUESS IS 360/10...BASED MOSTLY ON CONTINUITY. THE AVIATION-BASED GUIDANCE TURNS EMILY TO THE NORTHWEST...WHILE THE NOGAPS AND UKMET TRACK THE CYCLONE NORTHWARD IN RESPONSE TO CINDY. WHILE THERE IS SOME HINT OF A MORE EASTWARD COMPONENT... THE OFFICIAL FORECAST ESSENTIALLY UPDATES THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE. I AM WAITING TO SEE WHERE...AND WHETHER...THE AIRCRAFT FINDS A CENTER THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE MAKING SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST. FRANKLIN FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 27/1500Z 19.6N 56.4W 30 KTS 12HR VT 28/0000Z 21.2N 56.7W 30 KTS 24HR VT 28/1200Z 23.2N 57.7W 30 KTS 36HR VT 29/0000Z 25.0N 58.8W 30 KTS 48HR VT 29/1200Z 26.5N 60.0W 30 KTS 72HR VT 30/1200Z 29.5N 63.5W 30 KTS NNNN