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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  14
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT FRI AUG 27 1999
 
EMILY REMAINS A VERY VERY SMALL SYSTEM.  IN FACT...THE CIRCULATION
OF EMILY WOULD ALMOST FIT INSIDE THE EYE OF CINDY... LOCATED TO THE
NORTH.  IT NOW APPEARS THAT IT IS BEING INFLUENCED BY CINDY AND WILL
PROBABLY MOVE IN TANDUM WITH HER.  THE AVN MODEL TRACKS EMILY BEHIND
CINDY AND THROUGH THE MID ATLANTIC RIDGE.  THE NOGAPS ABSORBS EMILY
INTO CINDYS CIRCULATION JUST AS IT RECURVES THROUGH THE RIDGE. 
TRACK MODEL GUIDANCE GENERALLY MOVES THE SYSTEM NORTHWARD WITH A
GENERAL CONVERGENCE ON 60 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE IN 72 HOURS.  THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FOLLOWS THIS REASONING AND IS TO THE RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS PACKAGE.
  
INTENSITY ESTIMATES STILL KEEP THE SYSTEM AS A MINIMAL TROPICAL
STORM.  THE VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM WILL BECOME
UNFAVORABLE AS NORTHEAST WINDS IN THE UPPER LEVELS BEGIN TO BLOW
OVER THE SYSTEM.  THE SHIPS MODEL RECOGNIZES THIS FACTOR BUT IT IS
OVER-RIDDEN BY THE WARM SSTS.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST IS FOR AN
INVARIENT INTENSITY WITH TIME.
 
JARVINEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0300Z 21.6N  56.5W    40 KTS
12HR VT     28/1200Z 23.3N  56.1W    40 KTS
24HR VT     29/0000Z 25.7N  55.7W    40 KTS
36HR VT     29/1200Z 28.1N  55.9W    40 KTS
48HR VT     30/0000Z 30.4N  56.7W    40 KTS
72HR VT     31/0000Z 35.0N  59.5W    40 KTS
 
 
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