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TROPICAL STORM EMILY DISCUSSION NUMBER  15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT SAT AUG 28 1999

EMILY REMAINS A VERY VERY SMALL SYSTEM...WITH THE LOW LEVEL CENTER
EXPOSED TO THE NORTH OF THE PRIMARY CONVECTIVE CLUSTER. BASED ON
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 35 KT AND 30 KT FROM SAB AND
TAFB...THE SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A MINIMAL TROPICAL STORM FOR THIS
PACKAGE.

IT NOW APPEARS THAT EMILY WILL MEET ITS DEMISE AT THE HANDS OF CINDY
TO THE NORTH. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 005/12...WHICH HAS CAUSED EMILY
TO CLOSE FROM 510 MILES FROM CINDY AT 0145Z TO 455 MILES AT 0715Z.
LOW CLOUD ELEMENTS TO THE WEST OF EMILY ARE MOVING FROM WEST TO EAST
AROUND THE VASTLY LARGER CIRCULATION OF CINDY...INDICATING THAT
EMILY IS GETTING ENTRAINED INTO CINDY. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK
IS BASED ON THE PREMISE THAT EMILY WILL MOVE AROUND THE SOUTHEAST
SIDE OF CINDY UNTIL IT DISSIPATES.

STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH OUTFLOW FROM CINDY AND AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW SOUTHEAST OF EMILY SHOULD CAUSE STEADY WEAKENING.
THE INTENSITY FORECAST REFLECTS THIS...WITH DISSIPATION EXPECTED BY
48 HOURS.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     28/0900Z 23.3N  56.8W    35 KTS
12HR VT     28/1800Z 25.1N  56.7W    30 KTS
24HR VT     29/0600Z 27.9N  56.3W    25 KTS
36HR VT     29/1800Z 31.5N  55.0W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
48HR VT     30/0600Z...DISSIPATED 
 
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