HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT SUN SEP 05 1999
 
THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER THAT MOVED NORTH-NORTHWEST ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED TODAY.
SATELLITE IMAGERY ALONG WITH MEXICAN SURFACE AND RADAR DATA INDICATE
A SURFACE CIRCULATION HAS FORMED WITH SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO BE DECLARED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN...BUT IS ESTIMATED TO BE A NORTH-
NORTHWEST DRIFT...335/2. LARGE SCALE RIDGING EAST OF THE CYCLONE
SHOULD ALLOW FOR A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION...ALTHOUGH RIDGING
SEEN IN WATER VAPOR IMAGERY OVER NORTHERN MEXICO AND TEXAS MAY KEEP
THE MOTION SLOW. NHC HURRICANE GUIDANCE...RUN USING A STATIONARY
INITIAL MOTION...INDICATED A NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST TRACK IS FOR A NORTH-NORTHWEST MOTION WITH LANDFALL IN
NORTHEASTERN MEXICO IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. ONE POSSIBILITY TO KEEP AN
EYE ON IS THAT THE DEPRESSION MAY TRY TO IMITATE BRET...WITH A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK AND MORE TIME OVER WATER.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR SLOW STRENGTHENING TO TROPICAL
STORM INTENSITY JUST BEFORE LANDFALL...FOLLOWED BY DISSIPATION OVER
LAND. ON THIS BASIS...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING FROM TAMPICO TO MATAMOROS.
 
BEVEN
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     05/2100Z 21.8N  96.7W    25 KTS
12HR VT     06/0600Z 22.5N  97.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     06/1800Z 23.3N  97.5W    35 KTS
36HR VT     07/0600Z 24.2N  98.0W    30 KTS...INLAND
48HR VT     07/1800Z 25.0N  98.5W    25 KTS...INLAND
72HR VT     08/1800Z...DISSIPATED. 
 
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