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ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 3 NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 5 AM EDT MON SEP 06 1999 THERE IS SOME DOUBT ABOUT THE CENTER LOCATION OF THE CYCLONE ON INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. BROWNSVILLE RADAR ANIMATION SUGGESTS THAT THE CENTER IS ALREADY ON THE COAST OF MEXICO...BUT SINCE THE CENTER IS ABOUT 200 MILES FROM THE RADAR THIS IS SPECULATIVE. IMAGES FROM THE TAMPICO MEXICO RADAR ARE INCONCLUSIVE. LACKING DEFINITIVE INFORMATION...THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION ESTIMATES ARE MORE CONSERVATIVE AND HAVE CONTINUITY WITH THE PREVIOUS ADVISORIES. IN ANY EVENT A CONTINUATION OF THE CURRENT MOVEMENT WOULD BRING THE CENTER ACROSS THE COAST LATER TODAY. A WEAK MID- LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS SOUTHERN TEXAS SHOULD CAUSE A GRADUAL BEND OF THE TRACK TOWARD THE LEFT WITH TIME. THE CURRENT OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE...BUT A LITTLE FASTER. AFTER THE USUAL DIURNAL DECREASE...CONVECTION HAS INCREASED IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE DEPRESSION THIS MORNING. THE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW PATTERN OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM LOOKS FAIRLY IMPRESSIVE. THE ONLY OBVIOUS IMPEDIMENT TO STRENGTHENING IS LANDFALL...WHICH SEEMS IMMINENT AT THIS TIME. IF THE CENTER IS STILL OVER WATER...THERE IS STILL A SMALL WINDOW OF OPPORTUNITY FOR THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY. PASCH FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 06/0900Z 23.1N 97.3W 30 KTS 12HR VT 06/1800Z 23.8N 97.6W 35 KTS 24HR VT 07/0600Z 24.3N 98.2W 35 KTS...INLAND 36HR VT 07/1800Z 24.8N 99.0W 30 KTS...INLAND 48HR VT 08/0600Z 25.0N 99.5W 25 KTS...INLAND...DISSIPATING 72HR VT 09/0600Z...DISSIPATED NNNN