HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

ZCZC MIATCDAT2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION SEVEN DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT MON SEP 06 1999
 
BROWNSVILLE WSR-88 DATA INDICATES THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
SEVEN SLOWED AFTER LANDFALL IN NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...AND HAS AT BEST
DRIFTED WEST-NORTHWEST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. IT MAY BE THAT A
MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHWEST MEXICO AND WESTERN TEXAS HAS
SLOWED THE MOTION...ALTHOUGH LOW CLOUD MOTIONS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE
SUGGEST A SOUTHEASTERLY STEERING FLOW IS PRESENT AT THAT LEVEL. THE
OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST CALLS FOR A SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION
UNTIL DISSIPATION.

THE SATELLITE APPEARANCE HAS CHANGED LITTLE DURING THE PAST FEW
HOURS...AND DOPPLER RADAR WINDS IN THE BAND EAST OF THE CENTER ARE
TROPICAL STORM FORCE FROM 5000-7000 FT. THUS...THE DEPRESSION IS
MAINTAINING ITSELF EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS INLAND. WHILE
DISSIPATION OVER LAND IS THE FORECAST...THERE ARE TWO POSSIBILITIES
THAT REQUIRE WATCHING. FIRST...THAT THE CENTER MAY REFORM OVER
WATER...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
STORM. SECOND...THAT SINCE THE PRIMARY CONVECTION REMAINS OVER WATER
THE SYSTEM COULD STRENGTHEN EVEN THOUGH THE CENTER IS OVER LAND. 

HEAVY RAINFALL SHOULD CONTINUE NEAR AND EAST OF THE CENTER...AND MAY
PERSIST EVEN AFTER THE SYSTEM DISSIPATES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     06/2100Z 23.7N  98.4W    30 KTS
12HR VT     07/0600Z 23.8N  98.8W    30 KTS...INLAND
24HR VT     07/1800Z 24.3N  99.5W    25 KTS...DISSIPATING
36HR VT     08/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
 
NNNN