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TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
4 PM EST TUE SEP 07 1999
 
THE TROPICAL WAVE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC HAS DEVELOPED A
BROAD CYCLONIC CIRCULATION AND SUFFICIENT ORGANIZED CONVECTION TO BE
CALLED A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THUS...ADVISORIES ARE INITIATED ON
TROPICAL DEPRESSION EIGHT. THE MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE SET TO 
25 KT BASED ON SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 30 KT AND 25 KT FROM
TAFB AND SAB...RESPECTIVELY.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN DUE TO THE BROAD CENTER...
WITH THE BEST ESTIMATES 280/12. IT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISING IF THE
CENTER JUMPED AROUND WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION UNTIL THE SYSTEM
CONSOLIDATES. A LARGE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS NORTH OF THE CYCLONE...
WHICH WOULD SUPPORT A WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK. NHC HURRICANE
GUIDANCE GENERALLY AGREES WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH THE BAM MODELS WANT
TO TAKE THE SYSTEM FURTHER NORTH. THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS IN BEST
AGREEMENT WITH CLIPER...LBAR... AND THE GFDL.

THE CONVECTION IS NOT VERY CONCENTRATED...AND WITH A SYSTEM AT THIS
STAGE OF DEVELOPMENT THERE IS A POSSIBILITY IT MAY ALL DISAPPEAR
TONIGHT. HOWEVER...THE CIRCULATION IS LARGE AND THE UPPER LEVEL
WINDS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THUS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST
IS FOR SLOW AND STEADY STRENGTHENING AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES...
FOLLOWED BY MORE RAPID STRENGTHENING.
 
BEVEN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     07/2100Z 14.6N  46.2W    25 KTS
12HR VT     08/0600Z 14.8N  48.1W    30 KTS
24HR VT     08/1800Z 15.3N  50.6W    35 KTS
36HR VT     09/0600Z 15.8N  53.0W    45 KTS
48HR VT     09/1800Z 16.5N  55.5W    55 KTS
72HR VT     10/1800Z 18.0N  59.5W    75 KTS
 
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