HOME	ACTIVE CYCLONES	FORECASTS	IMAGERY	ABOUT TPC	RECONNAISSANCE

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TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
5 PM EDT WED SEP 08 1999
 
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM TAFB...SAB...AND AFWA THIS
AFTERNOON ARE NOW 55 KT...45 KT...AND 55 KT RESPECTIVELY.  THERE IS
STILL NOT MUCH CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER AND THE BANDS...WHILE
IMPRESSIVE...ARE WELL-REMOVED FROM THE CYCLONE.  GIVEN THE FLOPPY
FORM OF FLOYD...THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY IS ONLY INCREASED TO 45 KT
FOR THIS ADVISORY.  A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO BE IN
THE STORM OVERNIGHT.  THE OUTFLOW PATTERN IS VERY GOOD AND
SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED ONCE THE INNER CORE BECOMES
BETTER ORGANIZED.

THE CENTER IS STILL NOT EASY TO LOCATE...BUT THE INITIAL MOTION IS
ESTIMATED AS 290/14.  A MIDDLE LEVEL CUTOFF LOW NEAR BERMUDA...ALONG
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
CARIBBEAN...ARE EXPECTED TO PROVIDE ENOUGH LIFT TO KEEP FLOYD NORTH
OF THE LESSER ANTILLES.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS ON THE LEFT SIDE
OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE...ROUGHLY BETWEEN THE LBAR AND GFDL.  THE
BAM MODELS INDICATE A FAIRLY SHARP TURN TO THE NORTH AT THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD.  BEYOND 72 HOURS...THE KEY PLAYER WILL BE A
MAJOR TROUGH FORECAST TO BE MOVING OFF THE U.S. EAST COAST.  

FRANKLIN
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     08/2100Z 16.6N  51.7W    45 KTS
12HR VT     09/0600Z 17.4N  53.8W    50 KTS
24HR VT     09/1800Z 18.5N  56.1W    60 KTS
36HR VT     10/0600Z 19.5N  57.9W    70 KTS
48HR VT     10/1800Z 20.5N  59.5W    80 KTS
72HR VT     11/1800Z 22.0N  61.5W    90 KTS
 
 
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