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TROPICAL STORM FLOYD DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 PM EDT WED SEP 08 1999

INITIAL INTENSITY IS 50 KNOTS...BASED ON AVERAGE ESTIMATES FROM TAFB
AND SAB.  FLOYD HAS BANDING FEATURES...EXCELLENT OUTFLOW AND A LARGE
LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC ENVELOPE BUT IT LACKS AN INNER CORE.  UNTIL AN
INNER CORE FORMS...AND THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF THIS FEATURE FORMING AT
THIS TIME...NO RAPID STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR.  SHIPS AND
GFDL INSIST ON BRINGING THE HURRICANE TO 93 AND 101 KNOTS
RESPECTIVELY BY 72 HOURS.  THESE MODELS ARE THE ONLY OPERATIONAL
TOOLS AVAILABLE FOR INTENSITY AT THE TIME OF THE FORECAST. 
THEREFORE...FLOYD IS FORECAST TO REACH 95 KNOTS BY 72 HOURS...AFTER
A SLOW STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS.  IF THE INNER CORE
DOES NOT FORM...THE RAPID INTENSIFICATION WILL NOT TAKE PLACE. 

SINCE THE CENTER IS NOT WELL ORGANIZED...THE INITIAL MOTION IS
UNCERTAIN BUT BEST ESTIMATE IS 285/14.   THIS IS BASED ON SATELLITE
FIXES A LITTLE TO THE SOUTH OF EARLIER POSITIONS.  WATER VAPOR
IMAGES SHOW A LARGE UPPER-TROUGH/SHEAR AXIS EXTENDING FROM THE
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN TO A LOW NEAR BERMUDA.  THIS FEATURE SHOULD FORCE
FLOYD TO TURN MORE TO THE NORTHWEST IN A DAY OR TWO.  THEREAFTER...
ANOTHER LARGE TROUGH WHICH IS FORECAST TO BE ALONG THE EASTERN
UNITED STATES WILL LIKELY TURN FLOYD TO THE NORTH.  THE LATEST GFDL
SUGGESTS THAT THE WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH 72
HOURS...A LITTLE BIT OF A CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS INTEGRATION AND
THE UK MODEL INDICATES A RECURVATURE MORE TO THE WEST THAN IN
EARLIER RUN. THE AVN HAS BEEN CONSISTENT IN TURNING THE TROPICAL
CYCLONE GRADUALLY NORTHWARD.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
LBAR...WHICH IS GOOD IN THE DEEP TROPICS AND THE GFDL BUT STILL ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE TRACK MODEL ENSEMBLE. 

ON THIS TRACK...FLOYD WILL BE PASSING NORTH OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
BUT ONLY A SMALL DEVIATION TO THE LEFT...COULD BRING A PORTION OF
THE CIRCULATION OVER THE NORTHERNMOST ISLANDS. INTERESTS
IN THE NORTHERN LEEWARD SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF FLOYD.

AN AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE PLANE IS EXPECTED TO BE IN THE AREA
EARLY MORNING.  THEN...WE WILL HAVE GOOD MEASUREMENTS OF THE
INTENSITY AND LOCATION.        

AVILA
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL     09/0300Z 16.7N  53.6W    50 KTS
12HR VT     09/1200Z 17.3N  55.6W    60 KTS
24HR VT     10/0000Z 18.3N  58.0W    70 KTS
36HR VT     10/1200Z 19.5N  60.0W    80 KTS
48HR VT     11/0000Z 20.5N  61.7W    90 KTS
72HR VT     12/0000Z 22.0N  64.0W    95 KTS
 
 
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